Recently, the volatility of the lithium metal market has intensified, and prices continue to be under pressure. Affected by the global oversupply of lithium resources and weak demand growth, the price of lithium carbonate continues to decline, leading to a deterioration in profit distribution in the industrial chain. According to Shanghai Nonferrous Network, on May 5th, NOVO Energy, a lithium battery company under Volvo, announced the launch of a deep restructuring plan, which will take measures to reduce costs and adjust operational scale, resulting in 50% of employees facing layoffs. This incident reflects the severe challenges faced by the European lithium battery industry in the context of low lithium prices.
The global lithium resource supply pattern has undergone new changes. In April, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was 28700 tons of LCE, of which 16600 tons were exported to China, accounting for 57.8%, a month on month increase of 38%. The increase in South American salt lakes supplemented the domestic demand. The bottleneck of lithium ore transportation in Africa has been alleviated. In January and February, 1.16 million physical tons of spodumene were imported domestically, equivalent to 95000 tons of LCE, and the stranded port inventory has gradually arrived at the port. The domestic quotation for lithium mica concentrate with a grade of 2.0% -2.5% has fallen to 1425 yuan/ton, a 62% decrease from the high point in 2024. Jiangxi mica lithium extraction enterprises are facing cost restructuring pressure.
Despite the continued weakness in lithium product prices, lithium resources are still in high demand. Some lithium companies have reduced costs and increased efficiency through strategies such as producing low-cost production capacity and improving raw material self-sufficiency. For example, Ganfeng Lithium announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary LMA's Mariana Lithium Salt Lake project in Argentina has officially put into operation with a 20000 ton/year lithium chloride production line. Industry analysis believes that lithium companies' "counter trend" increase in resource allocation is a strategic layout to reverse profit structure and enhance profitability, targeting the window period of supply and demand reversal.
However, the problem of market supply-demand imbalance still needs to be resolved. The global lithium resource supply forecast for 2025 is expected to exceed 1.6 million tons of LCE, but the demand is expected to not exceed 1.4 million tons of LCE, resulting in a supply-demand surplus of over 200000 tons. The current inventory continues to accumulate, with lithium carbonate accumulating around 1500 tons per week. Against the backdrop of no clear supply and declining demand, there is still room for the price of lithium carbonate to fall.